In choosing which markets to list, Polymarket considers the following factors:
  • Is there enough demand for trading in the market to produce an accurate probability? Polymarket targets $X in trading volume as a minimum.
  • Is there social good or news value in understanding the probability generated by the market?
  • Can the market be resolved clearly?
This is usually a “Yes” / “No” question like “Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election?” or a multiple choice question like “At the September 2024 meeting, will the Federal Reserve a) leave rates unchanged; b) cut rates 25 bps; c) cut rates 50 bps, etc.”
  • Is there a credible information source for market resolution?
For example, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis can be specified as the official resolution source for a market about inflation.
  • Can the market be resolved in a definite time frame? Currently, markets are only created with a 6-month time horizon.